Causes of deficient waste collection in developing countries: Trivial made plausible

Developing countries struggle to provide waste collection services to all of their citizens.
Research shows that currently, around 35% of the global population is not being serviced
with waste collection. Almost all of these 2.7 billion people live in lower- or middle-
income countries, and there, mainly in the rural areas. This absence of waste collection
has direct negative effects on these people’s health and it worsens their living conditions.
In addition, it strongly increases the global emissions of greenhouse gases and the dis-
charge of waste-plastics into the environment.
This dissertation examines the causes of failing waste collection in developing countries.
It started with a systematic literature review which led to the conclusions that most stud-
ies are only about the symptoms of the problem and that very little is known about the
underlying societal causes. Most probably, this lack of understanding is caused by the
fact that the relevant demographic, economic, financial, social, governance and technical
processes are strongly influencing each other and are constantly changing. System dy-
namics is considered to be a suitable method to understand such complex and dynamic
systems. It uses qualitative and quantitative modelling to describe the most important
variables in a system, including the ways these variables influence each other and how
they affect the target variable of concern. The resulting models can be used to diagnose
possible causes of changes in the target variable and to design needed interventions.
This is the reason that System Dynamics was used throughout this study, with the target
variable being defined as the percentage of the total population that is serviced with
regular waste collection services.
The modelling started with qualitatively mapping the societal system at hand. The aim
was to acquire a general understanding of the variables and relations that may play a
role in causing absent waste services in cities in developing countries. Literature review
and expert views were used to identify these variables and relations and they were
brought together in a causal-loop-diagram (CLD). Another qualitative method, based on
graph-theory, was then used to characterize and analyze the variables, their relations, the
branched causal sub-systems and the feedback-loops in this CLD. The results revealed a
first general conclusion being that the root cause of the problem must be sought some-
where in the interplay of strong population growth, urbanization and economic growth.
This concurrence leads to mutually reinforced dynamics amongst the variables. The
reinforcement may be so strong that it cannot be managed by governments, not even
in situations where these governments are able to improve their quality and generate
needed budgets.
The next step used quantitative modelling for understanding the actual strength of these
societal processes and the way they influence the behavior of the system as a whole. For
this purpose, the processes of the CLD were turned into the mathematical format of a
stock-and-flow-diagram (SFD). Literature, expert views, estimates and assumptions were
used to set-up the model’s initial formulas and the values of its parameters. Vensim-soft-
ware was used to construct the SFD and to produce simulations of the behavior of the
system over time. The next step was to test the model against historical real-life datasets
and to calibrate the model’s parameters in order to produce improved simulations. This
calibration was done with the same software and with datasets that were found for six
individual Latin-American countries. The resulting six parameter-sets were distinct and
allowed for comparing the countries with each other. The study revealed substantial dif-
ferences between the respective causal structures of the six countries in the way they
lead to low service provision on waste collection. Also in this part of the research, it
appeared that growth of population plays a pivotal role. It’s part of a strong reinforcing
cycle together with economic growth, quality of government and availability of budgets.
But the reinforcement can go multiple ways. Panama and The Dominican Republic, for
example, show strong economic growth, enabling them to collect sufficient government
revenues. But the parameters for both countries show an inertia within the governance
system which prevents them from translating these budgets into improved services for
their citizens. Ecuador and Paraguay show an opposite situation; despite their relatively
low growth in government revenues, they show efficiency parameters that still enable
them to improve their services and to outpace the growth of population and waste
volumes. The reinforcing cycle seems to work out beneficial there. Belize shows a yearly
increase in government revenues but this growth is only due to its growing population.
The declining quality of the country’s government does not seem to influence these
revenues, but it has a negative impact in another way. It weakens the efficiency of using
this budget for waste collection and that seems to be the main cause of Belize’s steadily
decreasing service coverage.
Participation of the public plays a role in most countries but its importance is different
per country. Bolivia seems to be the only country where the rate of urbanization is part of
the cause of the problem.
The last part of the research tried to improve the understanding of the role of budget-
availability for waste collection, of the operational efficiency of these services, of the
participation of the public in these budgets and operations and of the more detailed
influence of urbanization. This was done by using the same model in a more detailed case
study in Bolivia. The SFD was refined and augmented based on interviews with experts in
the country. It was then calibrated against additional historical datasets.
The results casted new light on the role of the efficiency of waste collection services. Try-
ing to reach more and more citizens in the outskirts of the cities and in the rural areas,
leads to increasing costs per citizen. This logic of diminishing returns is negatively influ-
enced by the strong rate of urbanization and by a basic lack of trust in and appreciation
of the government. It leads to low public participation, thereby further deteriorating
the efficiency of public waste collection services. The effect is that the percentage of the
population being serviced is levelling at around 60%. An earlier hypothesis of neglect of
the rural areas by the government, doesn’t seem to be valid.
Through the analysis of interventions and scenario’s, the study led to the conclusion that
Bolivia should aim at improving the participation of the citizens in waste collection ser-
vices. This participation must be understood in a broad sense including the acceptance
of services, compliance with collection guidelines, payment of retributions, involvement
in improvements and flexibility towards changes. But the overall prerequisite is one of
restoring trust of the citizens in the government’s endeavors to provide waste collection
to everyone. Trying to isolate the appreciation of waste collection from the general situ-
ation of social unrest in the country may be a difficult task, but any small improvement
there will have a strong impact. Of course, extra budgets and improving the logistical
efficiencies will also pay-off, but not in a proportional way.
The thesis gives a summary of how the used method of System Dynamics relates to real-
ity and how it may help to improve our understanding of societal systems and problems.
It is argued that the plausibility of any model and its conclusions can only be expressed
in qualitative terms. A set of conditions is proposed to evaluate whether outcomes can
be valued as plausible. The conclusion of this research is that the developed model for
describing the causes of failing waste collection in developing countries indeed provides
plausible insights in what actually happens. Nevertheless, the model should still be put
to the test in other countries and global regions, and under other political, social and
cultural circumstances. It will enhance the model and it may also prove its usefulness for
research on other public services.