Development and validation of a risk prediction model for hospital admission in COVID-19 patients presenting to primary care

Laure Wynants, Natascha JH. Broers, Tamara N. Platteel, Roderick P. Venekamp, Dennis G. Barten, Mathie P.G. Leers, Theo JM. Verheij, Patricia M. Stassen, Jochen WL. Cals, Eefje GPM de Bont*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP).
To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors.
A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-out cross-validation in the development cohort and temporal validation in the validation cohort.
In the development cohort, 4,806 adult patients with COVID-19 consulted their GP (median age 56, 56% female); in the validation cohort 830 patients did (median age 56, 52% female). In the development and validation cohort respectively, 292 (6.1%) and 126 (15.2%) were admitted to the hospital within 14 days, respectively. A logistic regression model based on sex, smoking, symptoms, vital signs and comorbidities predicted hospital admission with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.86) at geographic cross-validation and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) at temporal validation, and was reasonably well calibrated (intercept −0.08, 95% CI −0.98 to 0.52, slope 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07 at geographic cross-validation and intercept 0.02, 95% CI −0.21 to 0.24, slope 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.00 at temporal validation).
We derived a risk model using readily available variables at GP assessment to predict hospital admission for COVID-19. It performed accurately across regions and waves. Further validation on cohorts with acquired immunity and newer SARS-CoV-2 variants is recommended.
Original languageEnglish
Article number2339488
Number of pages9
JournalEuropean Journal of General Practice
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2024


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