Geographies of feeling stuck behind and populist voting in The Netherlands

This article adds to the debate on the polarization of modern society by examining whether two principal theories, ‘voting with their feet’ and feelings of being ‘left behind’, can jointly explain the rise in the radical-right and radical-left vote shares across The Netherlands in regional, national, and European elections between 2009–2019. We propose a social-indicators-driven model, activating a Tiebout-Hirschman-Rothschild (THR) mechanism of radicalization triggered by perceived relative local deprivation, which we test empirically. The THR mechanism offers a cultural-filtering explanation for shaping feelings of being ‘stuck behind’ in a ‘left behind’ place which leads to radical voting behaviour. Using the THR model, we assess if the rise of radical-right and radical-left in the Netherlands is a function of the share of net migration in the locality, provision of public goods, and public spending on cultural public goods. Results reveal that inhabitants in municipalities with lower cultural expenditures and a relative decline of the Dutch population have a higher propensity to vote for right-wing radical political parties, thereby underscoring that cultural inequalities underpin political polarization. Both left and right vote shares are sensitive to this THR mechanism, demonstrating that political radicalization has a common cultural root. Although a decrease in general public spending affects voters’ utility functions and voting behaviour, it is the lack of cultural public spending that provides a separate mechanism which triggers the radicalized (more intensive) vote.