Properties and the predictive power of implied volatility in the New Zealand dairy market

Adrian Fernandez-Perez*, Bart Frijns, Ilnara Gafiatullina, Alireza Tourani-Rad

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

This study develops a dairy implied volatility index (DVIX), derived from New Zealand Exchange traded options on whole milk powder (WMP) futures. We document an inverse return–volatility relation which is asymmetric, where increases in WMP futures prices are associated with larger absolute changes in the DVIX than decreases. In sample, the results strongly suggest that the DVIX has a high information content regarding conditional variance and that the inclusion of historical information further improves the predictive power. Out of sample, we find that the DVIX provides substantial information about future realized volatility. We also document that a combination of historical volatility and the DVIX provides the best out‐of‐sample forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)612-631
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Futures Markets
Volume39
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • agricultural commodities
  • implied volatility
  • milk powder
  • volatility forecasting

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