Almost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009–20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.
- economic cycles
- economic resilience
- timing of economic crises
- Turkish provincial economic development
- two-stage least squares (2SLS)