End-of-life photovoltaic module’s future energy consumption

: Exploring the Dutch aggregated energy consumption of end-oflife photovoltaic module circularity strategies by 2030 and 2050

Abstract

The Netherlands aims to reach its legally binding CO2-reduction targets through a circular energy transition in which waste is mitigated and where polluting fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy sources generated by technologies such as photovoltaic (PV) modules. Becoming a circular economy implies that additional energy will be consumed by circularity strategies for the end-of-life
(EoL) processing of these PV modules. Until now, it was unclear what the future aggregated energetic impact for these EoL PV module circularity strategies would be. Therefore, the main research question of this research was:

What is the energetic impact of renewable solar energy technologies’ end-of-life circularity strategies on total Dutch energy demand in light of a Dutch circular energy transition towards 2050?

First, the capacity, number and weight of EoL PV modules between 1992 and 2050 were modelled by applying the Weibull probability distribution function. Then, through energy process analysis the specific energy consumptions for a variety EoL PV module circularity strategies were computed.

Lastly, scenarios were constructed in which the aggregated annual energy consumption of various allocations of EoL PV module flows to circularity strategies were computed. EoL PV module material flows were estimated to amount to nearly 9.500 and 300.000 tonnes in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A maximum of 10 GWh and 290 GWh of energy would be required for handling EoL PV modules in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The overall maximum energetic impact for 2030 and 2050 relative to total Dutch final energy consumption in these years respectively were estimated to be 0,0016% and 0,0512%. Thus, the overall impact was relatively marginal.
Nonetheless, a cannibalising effect for PV modules was identified. A little over a maximum of 25.000 and 617.000 PV modules would need to be installed in 2030 and 2050 for the sole purpose of generating energy for handling EoL PV modules in those years

Date of Award	9 Jun 2024
Original language	English
Supervisor	Wilfried Ivens (Examiner) & Lisanne Groen (Co-assessor)